TROPICAL STORM ERIKA: Some weakening forecast, flooding still a concern

ALERT #15 ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AT 3PM EDT, FRIDAY, 28TH AUGUST, 2015.

… ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF LONG ISLAND, CAT ISLAND, THE EXUMAS, SAN SALVADOR, RUM CAY, INAGUA, MAYAGUANA, ACKLINS, CROOKED ISLAND, LONG CAY, RAGGED ISLAND AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CAN POSSIBLY BE EXPERIENCED IN THOSE ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF ELEUTHERA, NEW PROVIDENCE, ANDROS, BIMINI, THE BERRY ISLANDS, GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CAN POSSIBLY BE EXPERIENCED IN THOSE ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 2:00 PM EDT, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 70.2 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, 293 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK, 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA, 427 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEADMAN’S CAY, LONG ISLAND AND 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW PROVIDENCE. 

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MILES PER HOUR AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIKA WILL MOVE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TONIGHT, AND MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS ERIKA MOVES OVER LAND, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. 

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE MODERATE TO SEVERE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THESE ISLANDS, PARTICULARLY LOW-LYING AREAS.

RESIDENTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF LONG ISLAND, CAT ISLAND, THE EXUMAS, SAN SALVADOR RUM CAY, INAGUA, MAYAGUANA, ACKLINS, CROOKED ISLAND, LONG CAY AND RAGGED ISLAND SHOULD MAKE FINAL PREPARARTIONS TO SECURE THEIR PROPERTIES FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.  RESIDENTS IN NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF ELEUTHERA, NEW PROVIDENCE, ANDROS, BIMINI, THE BERRY ISLANDS, GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACO, SHOULD BEGIN TO SECURE THEIR PROPERTIES FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. 

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT, WHILE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS IN THE WATCH AND ALERT AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA.